Oscar Predictions

Best Picture 

Amour 

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Life of Pie

Lincoln 

Les Miserables 

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty 

Should Win- Zero Dark Thirty: I've seen it twice now, and I don't think any new movie this year will match it ( but I hope I'm wrong!). It is chilling to watch Jessica Chastain's Maya slowly harden at the sight of war and torture, only to break down at the last second. The final shot of the film is breathtaking, and reason enough for this film to deserve its nomination. 

Will Win- Argo: It's a fun movie. I won't be angry if it wins, but it does not deserve it. Lincoln is the other top contender. The Academy does love a great historical biopic (see The King's Speech) and Lincoln is among the best. However, if there's one thing that it loves more, then that would be a great movie about movies (The Artist, for example). 

Best Director 

Michael Haneke (Amour)

Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Should Win- Steven Spielberg: I once asked my film professor what exactly he meant by "classical Hollywood style." He pointed me towards the films Steven Spielberg, and said, "that." Every shot has meaning, and advances the story. Every cut is motivated. You see exactly what is necessary to tell the story (nothing more, nothing less), exactly what Spielberg wants you to see. Spielberg made two more crucial choices. First, he personally convinced Daniel Day Lewis to play the beloved 16th president. Second, he narrowed his story down to the final months of the Civil War and Lincoln's life. Within this time period he found the compelling story of the ratification of the 13th Amendment. The result is a lean and focused 2:30 hour masterpiece. 

Will Win- Steven Spielberg: The Academy loves him, and it's been a while since he won for Saving Private Ryan. 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln)

Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Denzel Washington (Flight)

Should Win- Bradley Cooper: Mercurial. The role of Pat Solitano would have been disastrous in the hands of the wrong actor. Instead, its miraculous. My favorite scene involves Hemingway. If you haven't seen the film, go watch it right now. If you have, then you know what scene I'm talking about and will most likely never forget it. 

Will Win- Daniel Day Lewis: He gives some really impressive monologues, which are sure to get him the award. But what really impacted me about his performance was how he managed to make Lincoln seem so frail and vulnerable. Its scary to think that even Lincoln was just a guy from Kentucky. He had very real, very human flaws and DDL brings them out. 

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Should Win- Jessica Chastain: I still think she should have won for The Tree of Life last year. It is the greatest film of all time, and there is no excuse for it. She wasn't even nominated!! But I guess her work in Zero Dark Thirty is still much better than in The Help, for which she was nominated. As I said, it's all in the final shot. 

Will Win- Jennifer Lawrence: I had previously guessed Emmanuelle Riva would win, but it seems unlikely that a foreign actor or actress would win the award. Lawrence already won the Golden Globe, and her work in Silver Linings Playbook is phenomenal. It's incredibly fun simply to watch her and Bradely Cooper throw zingers back and forth with no filter to their thoughts or emotions. But, the performances are complementary. It would be a shame to see her win and to see Cooper going home empty handed. 

Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin (Argo)

Robert De Niro ( Silver Linings Playbook)

Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Honorary Mention- John Goodman: He is one of the most criminally underrated actors of all time (after Tim Roth, of course). He has never been nominated for an Oscar. This year he appeared in Trouble with the Curve, Argo, and Flight. In the last two, he gave performances that were as good as any on this list. His best was in Flight, where he plays Denzel Washington's friend/drug dealer. Comic brilliance. 

Should Win- Robert De Niro: Here, De Niro plays a controlling man with OCD and an addiction to gambling and football. On the surface, he is extremely unsympathetic. But De Niro unearths a caring father and protective husband. It's wonderful to see him in such great shape even 40 years after Mean Streets. 

Will Win- Tommy Lee Jones: Again, the Academy adores grandiloquent speech. However, Jones' best scene comes at the end of the film, after all the speechifying, as he shares a quiet, loving moment with his wife. 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams (The Master)

Sally Field (Lincoln)

Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Should Win- Amy Adams: She made The Master bearable. That alone deserves glory, praises, and a trophy on top. Icy and unyielding are the words that come to mind in describing her character. Adams plays Peggy, the wife of Lancaster Dodd, the man who begins and heads  a Scientology-like cult. Dodd is sham. The film exposes him, and his false beliefs. It is implied, however, that she is the mastermind behind the cult. She is shrouded in mystery which the film does not try to solve. It is frightening. 

Should NOT Win (but will win anyway)- Anne Hathaway: The more I think about it, the more I despise her performance. No, the performance is fine. Its the director I can't stand. Tom Hooper made Anne Hathaway get into a coffin and sing about the horrible life she is living while she is being violated. All of this he filmed in one, suffocating long take/closeup. Creepy. All it needed was a little distance. I did not need to be crammed in the coffin with her. Its a shame, because Anne Hathaway is extremely talented and deserved better.

Random Thoughts

- I might expand this post but for now, here's some others I think should win.

Best Animated Film- Brave should win, Wreck it Ralph will win. 

Best Cinematography- Skyfall should win, Life of Pi will win. 

Best Film Editing- Zero Dark Thirty should win, Argo will win. 

Best Score- Lincoln (John Williams) should win, Life of Pi will win. 

Best Song- Skyfall (Adele Adkins) same thing goes for Adele. 

Best Special Effects-The Avengers should win, Life of Pi will win 

Best Adapted Screenplay- Silver Linings Playbook should win and could win, but it's too close to call between it and Lincoln.  

Best Original Screenplay- Moonrise Kingdom should win, Amour will win.
Best Documentary- should and will win Searching for Sugar Man